To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here . Talking Points: GBP/USD Technical Strateg y: Near-term bullish prospects remain in GBP; GBP/USD range-bound despite the U.S.
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Analysis for November 30 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is forming another ascending structure to reach 1.0700. After that, the instrument may be corrected towards 1.0604
Analysis for November 30 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is still being corrected. The closest target is the retracement of 23.6%.
Access Free Oil Trading Guide from DailyFX Analysts HERE ! Talking Points: Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Strong Dollar & Clear Support In Focus To Resume Downtrend OPEC Production Cut Deal Comes Down To the Wire, Crude Down ~3.5% On Session Deal Rejection Could Lead To Long Winter For Oil Market We’re less than 24-hours to go before the Concluding Press Conference in Vienna where OPEC is said to agree or disagree on a united production cut formally , and it’s not looking good for those hoping for a deal. While some maintain that a cut is the default outcome, the details and follow-through ha ve always been a concern.
Talking Points – Euro-Zone economic sentiment rose marginally in November but consumer confidence fell and there was a surge in inflation expectations. – The data suggest accelerating growth in the Euro-Zone but that shouldn’t prevent the European Central Bank from extending its asset-purchase program next week. – The data had little impact on EUR/USD , which continues to consolidate after its recent falls
Talking Points: – There have been some profound trends developing in the wake of the U.S. Presidential Election, with the Japanese Yen off by -11.5% against both the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen
Talking Points – Annual German inflation unchanged, month-on-month dips lower. – ECB will need to keep on buying bonds. – Single currency edges towards 2015 low
Talking Points – Real yields are rising in the US, which means the US Dollar should be supported for the foreseeable future. – Momentum in EUR/USD and USD/JPY remains in favor of a stronger US Dollar over the coming days. – Fed funds futures pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in December.
Analysis for November 29 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is forming the fourth correctional structure; it has already reached the closest target of this correction.
Analysis for November 29 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is still consolidating. It’s highly likely that in the nearest future the price may resume the ascending correction and test the retracement of 23.6%
Research Team at Goldman Sachs, notes that oil fundamentals have weakened sharply since OPEC announced a tentative agreement to cut production and GS now expects a large surplus of 0.7 mb/d in 1Q17 in the absence of such a cut.
After failing to sustain early move beyond 50-day SMA and 1.2500 handle, the GBP/USD pair came under renewed selling pressure and has now dipped below 1.2400 handle, erasing tepid recovery gains posted in the previous three sessions Currently trading marginally below the said handle, the pair snapped three consecutive days of tepid recovery gains and reversed over 130-pips from the highest level since Nov. 11 touched during early Asian session on Monday. Spot prices lost further ground in the past hour amid resurgent greenback buying interest on growing expectations of faster-than-expected Fed rate-hike action, beyond December meeting.
Research Team at Goldman Sachs, takes a note that Copper prices have rallied sharply and net speculative positioning has reached its highest level since 2005 over the past two months.
Having posted a session high just below $1200 mark, Gold retreated and trimmed majority of tepid recovery gains amid renewed greenback buying interest. Currently trading around $1188-89 region, resurgent greenback buying interest is weighing on dollar-denominated commodities – like gold, which otherwise should have gained further traction on the back of safe-haven demand amid prevalent risk-off sentiment, as depicted by negative sentiment around European equity markets. Moreover, growing expectations of faster Fed rate-hike outlook in 2017 is further denting demand for non-interest-bearing yellow metal and restricted any swift recovery from the lowest level since February
The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index , has almost fully recovered the initial pullback, currently hovering over the mid-101.00s. US Dollar well supported near 100.70/60 The index has once again found strong support in the 100.70/60 band, and has not only retaken the 101.00 mark but also advanced to the area of 101.50, testing the positive territory for the time being. The broader picture around the dollar remains unchanged so far, with expectations of a rate hike in December still sustaining sentiment, albeit market participants should have already priced in the event.
Talking Points – I taly’s consumer confidence index dips to a 16-month low in November . – The data are a further setback to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s plans to spur economic growth – It will be volatile week for the Euro as the key Italian referendum approaches .
Talking Points – The US and China can help boost global growth from current levels but others need to do some fiscal lifting. – The EU needs to make “more robust use of fiscal space” – The UK’s prospects are “considerable weaker” post- Brexit. Global growth could gather steam through the next two years to around +3.5%, from a current +3% projected pace, according to the latest Global Economic Outlook from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
What’s inside: The S&P 500 keeps on moving to new levels, but… Likely to go through a choppy period of trading Support is likely to hold on a first dip lower In our last post , prior to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., we had this to say about the S&P 500: “The combination of persistent upward pressure, new highs, and holiday trading environment make fighting the trend a difficult proposition. No need here to be a hero. ” (Meaning, no need to try and find a top.) Indeed, the market has been persistently higher in recent sessions.
What’s inside: Rangebound price action continues to dominate, looking like consolidation Trading levels on the top and bottom-side More time needed before a swing trade could develop, nimble traders can look to levels to fade until then Join Paul on Wednesday (11/30) at 10 GMT for a look at charts of interest and potential trade set-ups across an array of asset classes.
Analysis for November 28 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair has extended the second ascending impulse and formed a continuation pattern at 1.0597.
Talking Points: US Dollar corrects lower after longest win streak in three years Yen gains as “Trump trade” reversal, OPEC fuel risk aversion NZ Dollar gains as PM Key eyes large budget surpluses ahead The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, suffering steep losses against all of its top counterparts as the so-called “Trump trade” appeared to reverse course. The greenback scored the longest winning streak in three years after the US presidential election as markets speculated that grandiose fiscal stimulus advocated by the incoming administration would boost inflation and force a more aggressive Fed rate hike cycle . The move seems to be giving way across financial markets as the absence of fresh fodder to fuel the narrative opens the door for profit-taking
Analysis for November 28 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” It’s highly likely that the EUR/USD pair started an ascending correction. The closest target is the correctional retracement of 23.6%