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Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2499, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2517 and low at 1.2420. Sterling has been robust in the wake of renewed pressures from the greenback across the board after a series of good enough data this week that leaves a Fed hike fully on the table for December.
Fed Cleveland’s President Loretta Mester was on the wires, via Reuters, noting that raising interest rates would be a prudent step Key headlines (via Reuters): Prospects are likely higher for changes in fiscal, immigration, infrastructure and trade policies Says ‘very uncertain’ how those changes will affect inflation, employment; ‘devil will be in the details’ Postponing hikes for too long would raise risks of recession and financial instability; fed not yet behind curve
Fed’s Governor Jerome Powell crossed the wires last minutes, via Reuters, stating that an increase in inflation compensation is a “good thing”. Key headlines (via Reuters): Should a patient to see how fiscal policy unfolds Focus on time and rate change may add to confusion Communication should emphasize uncertainty of forecast Dot plot changes over time reveal views on policy path Dot plot isn’t useful predictor of near-term rate moves
The Canadian economy expanded at a 3.5% rate during the third quarter. According to analysts from Wells Fargo, the fastest quarterly growth in Canada in two years may not be sustainable. They see downward pressure on the Canadian dollar (against the USD) amid monetary policy divergence between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to cut output today, from the beginning of 2017.
Talking Points • Indian third-quarter GDP print misses estimates but still grows 7.3% year-over-year • Rupee under pressure from government’s ‘Demonetisation’ move and Trump win • Reserve Bank of India under pressure to announce a further 0.25% rate cut next week See the DailyFX Analysts’ 4Q forecasts for Crude Oil , the Dollar, Euro , Pound , Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.
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Talking Points: • Brazil’s GDP shrank 0.8% in the third quarter, matching forecasts • The country’s prolonged recession – now 8 quarters long – could become the worst in its history • The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates a further 25 basis points this week Brazil’s economy shrank 0.8% in the third quarter, statistics agency IBGE reported on Wednesday. Growth was down a seasonally adjusted 2.9% compared to the third quarter of 2015.
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Talking Points: – OPEC members agreed to cut by 1.2 million barrels per day . – OPEC is likely to reach out to non-OPEC members to coordinate a deal . – Crude Oil jumped over 12% on the news and earlier reports that such a deal was in the making.
To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here . Talking Points: GBP/USD Technical Strateg y: Near-term bullish prospects remain in GBP; GBP/USD range-bound despite the U.S.
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Analysis for November 30 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is forming another ascending structure to reach 1.0700. After that, the instrument may be corrected towards 1.0604
Analysis for November 30 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is still being corrected. The closest target is the retracement of 23.6%.
Access Free Oil Trading Guide from DailyFX Analysts HERE ! Talking Points: Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Strong Dollar & Clear Support In Focus To Resume Downtrend OPEC Production Cut Deal Comes Down To the Wire, Crude Down ~3.5% On Session Deal Rejection Could Lead To Long Winter For Oil Market We’re less than 24-hours to go before the Concluding Press Conference in Vienna where OPEC is said to agree or disagree on a united production cut formally , and it’s not looking good for those hoping for a deal. While some maintain that a cut is the default outcome, the details and follow-through ha ve always been a concern.
Talking Points – Euro-Zone economic sentiment rose marginally in November but consumer confidence fell and there was a surge in inflation expectations. – The data suggest accelerating growth in the Euro-Zone but that shouldn’t prevent the European Central Bank from extending its asset-purchase program next week. – The data had little impact on EUR/USD , which continues to consolidate after its recent falls
Talking Points: – There have been some profound trends developing in the wake of the U.S. Presidential Election, with the Japanese Yen off by -11.5% against both the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen
Talking Points – Annual German inflation unchanged, month-on-month dips lower. – ECB will need to keep on buying bonds. – Single currency edges towards 2015 low
Talking Points – Real yields are rising in the US, which means the US Dollar should be supported for the foreseeable future. – Momentum in EUR/USD and USD/JPY remains in favor of a stronger US Dollar over the coming days. – Fed funds futures pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in December.
Analysis for November 29 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is forming the fourth correctional structure; it has already reached the closest target of this correction.
Analysis for November 29 th , 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” The EUR/USD pair is still consolidating. It’s highly likely that in the nearest future the price may resume the ascending correction and test the retracement of 23.6%
Research Team at Goldman Sachs, notes that oil fundamentals have weakened sharply since OPEC announced a tentative agreement to cut production and GS now expects a large surplus of 0.7 mb/d in 1Q17 in the absence of such a cut.