Talking Points: The CAC 40 has gapped lower on the open, to trade near the bottom of an ongoing consolidation range. This decline in the CAC 40 has occurred as a general decline in European equities markets is occurring this morning. Top losers for the Index includes BNP Paribas (-2.67%) and AXA (-2.43%)
Talking Points: – Swiss GDP was flat in Q3’16 , well below market expectations of an expansion to + 0.3%. – The SNB is highly unlikely to announce additional stimulus when it meets on December 15 .
Talking Points: – Job growth came in just below expectations, still strong enough to not disrupt the overarching trend. – The unemployment and undermployment rates fell on weaker labor force participation.
Talking Points: – December US NFPs look to come in around +180K; breakeven pace of jobs growth is around +100-120K, so even a middling, ‘Goldilocks’ would be good enough to drive down the unemployment rate. – Fed funds futures continue to price 100% chance of Fed hike in December; only a severe miss will weigh on hike oddS – asymmetrical risk. – Join the DailyFX Live Trading Room today at 13:15 GMT for live coverage of NFPs with Currency Analyst David Song
What’s inside: The DAX continues series of lower higher and lower lows Trading beneath lower parallel of channel Looking for the post-Brexit trend-line as a target To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please sign up here. On Wednesday, we looked at the DAX up close and made note of the lower highs, lower lows developing on the 60-minute time-frame. The market failed to push above resistance surrounding 10700 that day, then slipped back lower making good on continuing the series of lower highs and lower lows
Talking Points: After declining as much as much as 114 pips in yesterday’s trading, the EUR/USD is still consolidating ahead of tomorrow’s NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) employment data release. Tomorrow news is expected in at a reported 180k, however any deviation from this value may increase market volatility and cause the EUR/SUD to break from its daily range. Technically, the range is defined by the previous swing high put in place on November 28 th at a price of 1.0685
Talking Points USD/JPY rally eyeing near-term resistance confluence ahead of U.S. NFP Updated targets & invalidation levels Clic k H ere to be added to Michael’s email distribution list
Talking Points: – GBP/USD Paves Larger Relief Rally Amid Easing Fears of ‘Hard Brexit.’ – NZD/USD Fails to Extend Near-Term Bullish Series Ahead of NFP Report.
Talking Points: – ISM Manufacturing rose to match the 2016 high of 53.2 – Economic data has continued to be strong overall – USD slowed its trek higher on the data, following huge gains over the past few weeks. The ISM Manufacturing survey for November came in at 53.2 vs expectations of 52.5 and a previous reading of 51.9.
Talking Points: – November was a big month for markets as the ‘Trump Trade’ drove some significant price action moves. – Tomorrow brings us our first piece of post-Trump data out of the United States with the release of November Non-Farm Payrolls
Talking Points • Indian third-quarter GDP print misses estimates but still grows 7.3% year-over-year • Rupee under pressure from government’s ‘Demonetisation’ move and Trump win • Reserve Bank of India under pressure to announce a further 0.25% rate cut next week See the DailyFX Analysts’ 4Q forecasts for Crude Oil , the Dollar, Euro , Pound , Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.
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Talking Points: • Brazil’s GDP shrank 0.8% in the third quarter, matching forecasts • The country’s prolonged recession – now 8 quarters long – could become the worst in its history • The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates a further 25 basis points this week Brazil’s economy shrank 0.8% in the third quarter, statistics agency IBGE reported on Wednesday. Growth was down a seasonally adjusted 2.9% compared to the third quarter of 2015.
Talking Points: – OPEC members agreed to cut by 1.2 million barrels per day . – OPEC is likely to reach out to non-OPEC members to coordinate a deal . – Crude Oil jumped over 12% on the news and earlier reports that such a deal was in the making.
To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here . Talking Points: GBP/USD Technical Strateg y: Near-term bullish prospects remain in GBP; GBP/USD range-bound despite the U.S.
Access Free Oil Trading Guide from DailyFX Analysts HERE ! Talking Points: Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Strong Dollar & Clear Support In Focus To Resume Downtrend OPEC Production Cut Deal Comes Down To the Wire, Crude Down ~3.5% On Session Deal Rejection Could Lead To Long Winter For Oil Market We’re less than 24-hours to go before the Concluding Press Conference in Vienna where OPEC is said to agree or disagree on a united production cut formally , and it’s not looking good for those hoping for a deal. While some maintain that a cut is the default outcome, the details and follow-through ha ve always been a concern.
Talking Points – Euro-Zone economic sentiment rose marginally in November but consumer confidence fell and there was a surge in inflation expectations. – The data suggest accelerating growth in the Euro-Zone but that shouldn’t prevent the European Central Bank from extending its asset-purchase program next week. – The data had little impact on EUR/USD , which continues to consolidate after its recent falls
Talking Points: – There have been some profound trends developing in the wake of the U.S. Presidential Election, with the Japanese Yen off by -11.5% against both the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen
Talking Points – Annual German inflation unchanged, month-on-month dips lower. – ECB will need to keep on buying bonds. – Single currency edges towards 2015 low
Talking Points – Real yields are rising in the US, which means the US Dollar should be supported for the foreseeable future. – Momentum in EUR/USD and USD/JPY remains in favor of a stronger US Dollar over the coming days. – Fed funds futures pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in December.
Talking Points – I taly’s consumer confidence index dips to a 16-month low in November . – The data are a further setback to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s plans to spur economic growth – It will be volatile week for the Euro as the key Italian referendum approaches .
Talking Points – The US and China can help boost global growth from current levels but others need to do some fiscal lifting. – The EU needs to make “more robust use of fiscal space” – The UK’s prospects are “considerable weaker” post- Brexit. Global growth could gather steam through the next two years to around +3.5%, from a current +3% projected pace, according to the latest Global Economic Outlook from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
What’s inside: The S&P 500 keeps on moving to new levels, but… Likely to go through a choppy period of trading Support is likely to hold on a first dip lower In our last post , prior to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., we had this to say about the S&P 500: “The combination of persistent upward pressure, new highs, and holiday trading environment make fighting the trend a difficult proposition. No need here to be a hero. ” (Meaning, no need to try and find a top.) Indeed, the market has been persistently higher in recent sessions.
What’s inside: Rangebound price action continues to dominate, looking like consolidation Trading levels on the top and bottom-side More time needed before a swing trade could develop, nimble traders can look to levels to fade until then Join Paul on Wednesday (11/30) at 10 GMT for a look at charts of interest and potential trade set-ups across an array of asset classes.
Talking Points: US Dollar corrects lower after longest win streak in three years Yen gains as “Trump trade” reversal, OPEC fuel risk aversion NZ Dollar gains as PM Key eyes large budget surpluses ahead The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, suffering steep losses against all of its top counterparts as the so-called “Trump trade” appeared to reverse course. The greenback scored the longest winning streak in three years after the US presidential election as markets speculated that grandiose fiscal stimulus advocated by the incoming administration would boost inflation and force a more aggressive Fed rate hike cycle . The move seems to be giving way across financial markets as the absence of fresh fodder to fuel the narrative opens the door for profit-taking
Talking Points – Another month, another weak print for Japanese consumer prices . – The “core” index slipped back for an eighth consecutive month
Talking Points – ECB says growing political uncertainty in Euro area could reignite global risk aversion. – The Financial Stability Review report warns of growing risks of global market corrections
Talking Points – The South African Rand held steady as the central bank left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 7.0%, as expected. – Future movements in USD/ZAR are more likely to be determined by events in the US than in South Africa. – A rating decision Friday by Moody’s will also be an important driver.
Talking Points – UK mortgage approvals rise to a five-month high in October . – The data illustrate further signs that UK consumers are defying Brexit fears .
Talking Points: Crude oil prices ignore supportive Iraq comments, EIA inventory data Markets may be turning deaf to OPEC jaw-boning as key meeting nears Gold prices sink as US durables report drives hawkish Fed outlook shift Crude oil prices drifted sideways despite seemingly supportive news-flow coming across the wires. First, Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi said his country will participate in an OPEC production cut deal, reversing previous demands for an exemption